In this post I want to briefly review some trends that Rob Salkowitz discusses in his book Young World Rising: How Youth, Technology and Entrepreneurship are Changing the World from the Bottom Up. Salkowitz is a consultant that specializes in analyzing the social implications of new technology and what he terms the next-generation workforce. According to this bio he is an entrepreneur who has started up seven businesses including the communications firm MediaPlant. You can check out the website that was set up to engage people in conversation about his book by going to www.youngworldrising.com.
Salkowitz’s basic observation of world trends is that,
The spread of information networks and the development of information and communication technology (ICT) skills across a broader swath of the workforce open new avenues to prosperity that did not exist even a decade ago in many parts of the world. It also creates a whole new set of opportunities and uncertainties for global businesses. The old problems of the Young World may still remain, but the introduction of this new dynamic can being to bend the curve upward. (4)
This rise of ICT creates opportunity for innovation to come from outside the traditional channels. Salkowitz understands his account not to be a prediction but rather a description of what is emerging. He makes the case that “new growth and innovation comes from outside the established centers of the global economy (including China), and from the bottom up.” (7) This exclusion of China caught me by surprise. He does acknowledge that the economic growth of China has been “undoubtedly the biggest economic story of the half-century 1980-2030.” However, besides this acknowledgment he moves to arguing why he does not consider China as part of the “Young World Rising.” He states four reasons for why China is not part of his discussion of “youth, social technology, and entrepreneurship in emerging economies.” (6) He argues:
1. China is not young. China’s working age population will peak in 2016 and then diminish for the rest of the century. Goldman Sachs projects that China’s median age will rise from 33 in 2005 to 45 in 2050, while India’s, for example, will continue to hold steady at around 26. By 2030, China may have as many senior citizens 65 and over as children under 15. Those are Old World demographics, not Young World ones.
2. China is not open to social technology. China has one of the highest levels of Internet and mobile penetration of any country in the world. However, the government maintains almost obsessive control over access to information, using filtering technologies and heavy handed censorship to limit the subject matter that its citizens can access and discuss. It is profoundly uncertain whether innovation can flourish under these conditions, given the kinds of open, freewheeling collaborative conversations that go on elsewhere in the world.
3. China is enterprising, not entrepreneurial. “In China, the government is the entrepreneur,” writes Harvard Business School professor Tarun Khanna. That is, entrepreneurship is government-led and financed primarily through extremely opaque transactions with government-run banks. Its highly-productive economy retains many vestiges of state control and central planning, indicating a top-down rather than bottom-up development model.
4. China is not “emerging.” It has emerged. By 2020, it will be the world’s second largest economy behind the United States. (6-7)
I am taking Salkowitz at face value in order to briefly reflect on what opportunities this might entail for Chinese Christians to missionally engage their own context.
1.) Christians could provide some leadership in caring and providing for the elderly population (as China ages). This could include the use of the social media that is available in China to organize care locally. (Those who are elderly but still in good shape could contribute to serving their countrymen in need.)
2.) Church leaders that are currently being trained in China should consider these demographic trends and discern what role the church is meant to play as China is aging.
3.) Foreign mission organizations could anticipate these trends and discern what their role is in supporting and equipping Christian Chinese leaders with the skills necessary to navigate the times ahead.
I know these suggestions are nothing else besides starting to brainstorm out loud. I would be interested to hear if anyone knows any articles that deal with these demographic trends and social challenges. Furthermore, I would be interested in what you think opportunities are for Chinese Christians in this changing environment. Finally, I would be interested to hear what you think of Salkowitz’s analysis of China and whether or not you think it is valid.
No comments:
Post a Comment